Beware the Rosser Reeves effect when interpreting tracking data

Decision-Making

Research routinely shows that people who’re aware of communication from brand X are more likely to buy that brand. Sometimes used as evidence that communication drives sales, in fact causality usually runs the other way: buying brand X makes you more likely to notice its communications. This phenomenon (the so-called Rosser Reeves effect - named after the famous 1950s adman) has been known for decades, yet is still routinely used to ‘prove’ communication effectiveness (most recently to justify social media use).

Behavioural principles

Behavioural ideas at play in this post

Short, plain-English explanations of the principles behind this post, with links to related books and examples in the archive.

Overconfidence effect

We are often more certain than the evidence really allows.

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Salience

What stands out captures attention and shapes choice.

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Base-rate neglect

We focus on vivid specifics and ignore the wider statistical odds.

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Beware the Rosser Reeves effect when interpreting tracking data

Behavioural ideas at play in this post

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