Easy-to-process things feel truer, safer, and more appealing.
More quotes“What would change your mind?”
“Better evidence.”
“What result?”
“A robust one.”
“How large?”
“Large enough.”
“When?”
“When the data is mature.”
“And if the number moves the other way?”
“We would need to understand the context.”
This is how a belief receives permanent residency while its owner continues advertising an open border.
Tolstoy’s intelligent man does not lack information. He lacks an exit condition. Intelligence then becomes defensive equipment: vocabulary for turning objections into category errors, memory for retrieving the flattering exception, fluency for making retreat sound like nuance.
Forecasting is less dignified and therefore more useful. Write down a number and a date. Sales above this amount by June. June arrives. The number sits below the line. A new forecast may explain the market, seasonality, distribution or Martians. It cannot travel backwards and make the old forecast correct.
Debate offers an easier escape. Find the stupidest advocate of the opposing view, flatten them, and declare the view flattened too. Every position has idiots available for this service, including the correct one.
The chair asks whether the forecast should include a threshold. Nobody volunteers a number. The discussion moves to wording, where intelligence is once again safely in charge.