Second-order social intelligence

A discount can be a confession.

The theatre thinks it has reduced the financial risk. The buyer wonders why nobody else wants the seats. And because the ticket is only one part of a night involving food, travel, childcare and several irreplaceable hours, saving £20 matters less than avoiding three hours of aggressively mediocre singing.

Empty restaurants suffer the same arithmetic. So do training courses suddenly reduced by 70%, and software vendors offering an enormous discount before the buyer has objected to price. Cheapness can suggest efficiency. It can also suggest weak demand, poor confidence or a target being chased down a corridor.

Economics gets silly when it pretends price communicates only sacrifice. Price is gossip. It tells buyers what the seller may believe, what other buyers may have done and how embarrassing a bad choice might become. Full price can lower perceived risk when quality is uncertain.

Discounts still work when their story makes sense: off-peak capacity, an annual commitment, a trial, a damaged box. Explain the reason or customers will invent one, usually crueller than yours. “We charge less” is not a complete proposition. Less than what, and why?

Sometimes cheaper reduces the cost of being wrong. Sometimes it increases the suspicion that you are.

Behavioural principles

Behavioural ideas at play in this post

Short, plain-English explanations of the principles behind this post, with links to related books and examples in the archive.