Social proof inadvertently being misused and making the problem worse

Take the example of getting more women on company boards, an issue widely championed by campaigners and indeed Prime Ministers, but often embodying a clear example of the ‘big mistake’. The normal centrepiece of campaigns to get more women on boards is a statistic along the lines ‘isn’t it shocking that only 25 per cent of board members are women?’ (less in some countries). It is shocking, but it’s also likely to be a message that inadvertently normalises the situation. On the other hand, if such campaigns made the equally valid point that ‘90 per cent of companies have women on their boards’, then the signalling is very different. Following discussions with Iris Bohnet, an expert on gender inequality, and Emily Walsh, special adviser to the UK’s Business Secretary, parts of the UK’s campaign to encourage more women on to boards were indeed reframed this way.

“Most people still do the bad thing” is a public-information campaign and a free advert for the bad thing.

The statistic can be accurate, scandalous and behaviourally disastrous all at once. Tell employees most colleagues ignore training and non-compliance acquires a social life. Tell hotel guests that towel waste is rampant and waste becomes the house style. Announce that a tiny minority of senior roles go to women and the intended outrage may carry a second message: this is still how things are done here.

Condemnation does not disinfect a norm.

Imagine a headteacher addressing assembly: “Nearly everyone in this school is vaping behind the bins and we are appalled.” The appalled bit is doing heroic work against a much more interesting revelation about what nearly everyone is apparently doing after lunch.

Before publishing a number, ask what behaviour it makes sound ordinary among people like me. Use honest denominators and credible peer groups. Show the growth of the desired action, the relevant organisations already changing or the majority quietly doing the right thing—when those claims are true.

This is no excuse to hide the scale of a problem beneath cheerful spin. Tell the truth. Just recognise that every statistic brings a crowd into the sentence, and crowds supply permission.

There is a nasty asymmetry here. The dramatic minority often makes the better headline, while the quiet majority makes the better behavioural cue. Communications teams are rewarded for alarm, then mystified when the alarm gives undesirable behaviour a starring role and a fan club.

A campaign designed to shame bad behaviour can accidentally recruit for it. Quite an achievement. The poster condemns the act while pointing towards the queue.