The Abilene trap

The article is called The Abilene Paradox, and it’s by the management theorist Jerry Harvey. It begins with a personal anecdote set during a stiflingly hot Texas summer. Harvey and his wife were staying with her parents, relaxing one afternoon when his father-in-law suggested a trip to Abilene, 50 miles away, for dinner. Harvey was appalled at the thought of driving “across a godforsaken desert, in a furnace-like temperature … to eat unpalatable food.” But his wife seemed keen, so he kept his objections to himself.

The experience was as terrible as he’d predicted. Later, trying to be upbeat, he said, “That was a great trip, wasn’t it?” But one by one, each family member confessed they’d hated it and had agreed to go only because they believed it was what the others wanted. “Listen, I never wanted to go to Abilene,” Harvey’s father-in-law said. “I just thought you might be bored.”

“Fancy the expensive New Year’s party?”

“If everyone else does.”

“I’m easy.”

“Same.”

That is four votes for a party nobody has said they want. One person books it because delay might disappoint the others. The others transfer money because objecting now feels stingy. By midnight, £320 has purchased warm prosecco, a queue for the toilets and enough suppressed resentment to heat a bungalow.

Later, somebody says they would have preferred chips in the quiet pub. Two others immediately agree. The organiser is furious: “Why didn’t anyone say?” Nobody asks why the organiser did not say either.

The Abilene trap has no mastermind. It runs on considerate guesses. Each person mistakes the others’ public compliance for private enthusiasm, then contributes more compliance as evidence. A show of hands can make this worse because the first raised hand changes the cost of keeping yours down.

Sometimes compromise is simply compromise. Four different preferences produce the least objectionable option. Here the bizarre feature is that the supposed majority preference belongs to nobody.

The same group plans summer. A message arrives: “Beach house again?” Three thumbs-up emojis appear. The fourth person types, “Only if people actually want it,” deletes the sentence, and adds a fourth thumb.