We are often more certain than the evidence really allows.
More quotesNumeracy does not reliably defeat motivated reasoning. Sometimes it makes motivated reasoning more capable.
Kahan’s participants interpreted the same figures differently when the result touched political identity. Those strongest at maths were especially able to reach the conclusion congenial to their side. Skill improved the analysis and the rationalisation together.
The comforting story says bias belongs to foolish people and education removes it. The result suggests a less flattering possibility. Clever people have more ways to question an inconvenient sample, reinterpret a comparison or discover a confounding variable. When the finding supports their group, those methodological concerns often become less urgent.
The asymmetry matters. A standard applied only to unwelcome evidence is a preference pretending to be rigour.
Procedures can expose some of it. Decide evaluation rules before knowing which conclusion they favour. Hide ideological labels where possible. Ask what result would change your mind and notice when the answer becomes “a much better study” only after the current study hurts.
Reason remains essential. The mistake is treating ability as immunity. A person can calculate flawlessly while choosing, without awareness, which calculation deserves to count. More intelligence may produce a better answer; it can also produce a better explanation for the answer identity wanted from the start.