We are often more certain than the evidence really allows.
More quotesForecasts gain authority from decimal places in the way small dogs gain authority from barking. The noise feels precise. A sales plan converts uncertain conversations into one quarterly total. A hiring model assumes demand will rise along a tasteful curve. A delivery date appears before anybody has opened the difficult dependency. Each number may be useful. The fraud begins when conditional guesses are promoted to facts because the file has gridlines.
Galbraith’s joke bites because astrology at least admits to symbolism. Economic forecasting can wrap uncertainty in equations and make a future event look as if it has already completed the paperwork.
We still need forecasts. Inventory, capacity, cash and staffing require a view of what might happen. The useful output is a decision capable of surviving several plausible futures.
Ranges help. Base rates help. Assumptions written in plain English help most of all, because somebody can watch them fail. Keep the old prediction too. Without a record, organisations remember the glorious hit and quietly send the misses to live on a farm.
For each high, middle and low case, say what action changes and which early signal triggers revision. Precision earns respect only when the world supplies it. Visible uncertainty is sometimes the most accurate number on the page.