The first number or idea we encounter pulls later judgments toward it.
More quotesThe first number squats in the conversation and starts charging rent.
It need not be sensible. It merely needs to arrive before judgement has found somewhere else to live. A random house price shifts students and estate agents alike. Expertise provides better reasons for the final estimate; it apparently does not stop the starting point tugging at the answer.
This makes uncertainty expensive. Salary ranges, project estimates, artwork, company valuations—the foggier the value, the more attractive any visible lamppost becomes. The seller names £80,000 and suddenly £70,000 feels cautious. A pricing page places an absurdly expensive tier beside the target plan and calls the resulting feeling “value”.
Anchors can be useful. Market comparables and sensible reference classes give judgement somewhere defensible to begin. The problem is accidental authority: a number earns influence by being first, then gets mistaken for evidence.
Private estimates help. So do written assumptions, several comparison groups and a justified opening number prepared before negotiation. None creates immunity. They simply give the mind a sturdier address before somebody else’s figure moves in.
Whenever a number arrives from a person with different incentives, ask the impolite question: if this figure had never been mentioned, where would the evidence have led? Anchors thrive in empty water. Build the harbour first.