We are often more certain than the evidence really allows.
More quotesA theory is easy to love. It agrees with you, makes the past tidy and never leaves wet towels on the floor.
That is precisely why it needs enemies.
“Creative cultures create growth” looks magnificent beside three famous winners. Put it beside imaginative companies that failed and dull companies that prospered, and suddenly the theory has to work for dinner. Marketing does this too: praise for the campaign becomes insight; criticism becomes “not our audience”. Product teams trust the A/B test that supports the roadmap and discover profound methodological concerns when it does not.
The revealing question is: what evidence would change our mind? “Nothing” means this is no longer a theory. It is a pet.
Give someone the job of building the strongest rival explanation. Search for failures, negative cases and people who heard the same sales pitch but declined. Record the prediction before the result. Disconfirmation need not murder the idea; it may show where the idea works, which is more useful than pretending it governs the universe.
Permanent scepticism is its own vanity. Decisions must still happen. But confidence should be earned by surviving evidence selected to cause trouble, not by collecting flattering examples after the ending is known. Any story looks clever once it controls the guest list.